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Alabama vs. Ohio State odds, prediction, betting trends for 2021 College Football Playoff championship

No. 1 Alabama and No. 3 Ohio State meet within the Faculty Soccer Playoff championship recreation Monday in a basic blue-blood matchup.  

The sport is at Arduous Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla. Kickoff is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET on ESPN.  

Alabama (12-0) is in its fifth CFP championship recreation underneath Nick Saban after beating No. 4 Notre Dame 31-14 within the semifinals. The Crimson Tide are additionally in search of a sixth nationwide championship underneath Saban, and the offense averages 48.2 factors per recreation. DeVonta Smith, Mack Jones and Najee Harris lead that offense, which could get an additional raise with the potential return of Jaylen Waddle.  

MORE: Alabama vs. Ohio State players in the NFL

Ohio State (7-0) answered any doubts about its playoff credentials with a 49-28 victory towards No. 3 Clemson within the semifinals. Justin Fields is coming off a six-touchdown efficiency regardless of taking a nasty hit within the second quarter. Second-year coach Ryan Day expects Fields to play, and the working recreation has taken off with Oklahoma switch Trey Sermon.  

It’s trending towards a shootout and an on the spot basic.  

Here is all the pieces to learn about betting on Alabama vs. Ohio State, with up to date odds, developments and our prediction for the CFP semifinal.   

Alabama vs. Ohio State odds  

  • Unfold: Alabama –7.5 
  • Over/underneath: 75.5 
  • Moneyline: Alabama –110, Ohio State –110   

Alabama Playoff historical past  

The Crimson Tide are within the CFP for the sixth time, and they’re within the championship recreation for the fifth time. Alabama is 2-2 in these earlier title video games.  

Yr Rank Outcomes
2014 1 Misplaced to No. 4 Ohio State 42-35
2015 2 Beat No. 3 Michigan State 38-0, Beat No. 1 Clemson 45-40
2016 1 Beat No. 4 Washington 24-7, Misplaced to No. 2 Clemson 35-31
2017 4 Beat No. 1 Clemson 24-6, Beat No. 3 Georgia 26-23
2018 1 Beat No. 4 Oklahoma 45-34, Misplaced to No. 2 Clemson 44-16
2020 1 Beat No. 4 Notre Dame 31-14

Ohio State Playoff historical past  

That is Ohio State’s fourth CFP look and second look within the championship recreation. The Buckeyes beat Oregon 42-20 on this stage in 2014.  

YEAR RANK RESULTS
2014 4 Beat No. 1 Alabama 42-35, beat No. 2 Oregon 42-20
2016 3 Misplaced to No. 2 Clemson 31-0
2019 3 Misplaced to No. 2 Clemson 29-23
2020 3 Beat No. 2 Clemson 49-28

Three developments to know  

— Alabama has been favored in all 4 earlier CFP championship appearances. The Crimson Tide is 2-2 straight-up in these video games, however they’re 0-4 ATS.  

— The Crimson Tide is 8-4 ATS this season, and that features a 2-1 ATS mark when the unfold is fewer than 20 factors.   

— The Buckeyes performed the underdog card to perfection towards Clemson, however that has been the usual with City Meyer and now Day as head coach. The Buckeyes are 8-1 ATS as an underdog since 2012.  

Three issues to observe  

— Justin Fields’ encore. Fields was spectacular towards Clemson, even after taking a brutal hit from Clemson linebacker James Skalski. Fields threw three TDs to his receivers — together with two to Chris Olave — but it surely was the three TD passes to tight ends Jeremy Ruckert and Luke Farrell that stored the Tigers off stability. Garrett Wilson figures to be extra concerned on this recreation, too. Alabama’s secondary options first-team All-American cornerback Patrick Surtain II, however that protection has been exploitable towards high-powered passing assaults this season. The previous three quarterbacks to beat Alabama who did not play for Auburn had been Deshaun Watson, Trevor Lawrence and Joe Burrow. That’s the stage at which Fields should play, and he is able to doing it.  

— Alabama’s receivers. Quarterback Mac Jones has a super-talented group to work with within the passing recreation. DeVonta Smith is on a two-game tear during which he torched Florida and Notre Dame. He had 22 catches for 314 yards and 5 TDs in these two video games. Ohio State, which permits 271 passing yards per recreation, cannot lose Smith in the course of the sphere like the Irish did. John Metchie’s 17.8 is one other risk, and if Waddle — who averaged 22.3 yards per catch earlier than struggling a leg damage towards Tennessee on Oct. 24 — performs, then offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian may have much more wrinkles so as to add to the playbook.    

— Which huge again goes massive? Najee Harris and Trey Sermon are two big-time backs, and working the ball stays a precedence for each groups. Will Sermon play the position of Ezekiel Elliott, who had 20 carries for 230 yards and two TDs within the final assembly between these groups? Sermon’s late-season surge has opened the playbook for the Buckeyes, and he is up towards an Alabama protection that permits 3.2 yards per carry. Ohio State additionally permits simply 3.2 yards per carry, and Harris is a tricky, bodily runner. Which inside line wins on each side? That can dictate the tempo of the sport.  

Stat that issues  

Crimson-zone TDs

Ohio State’s red-zone offense was phenomenal towards Clemson, and the problem is to remain that approach towards the Crimson Tide. The Buckeyes scored TDs on 25 of 39 red-zone journeys this 12 months, and Alabama allowed 17 TDs on 34 red-zone journeys by its opponents.  

On the opposite aspect, Alabama scored TDs on 48 of 62 red-zone visits, and the Buckeyes allowed 15 TDs in 23 journeys by their opponents.  

It is a recreation during which TDs, not area targets, will win. Alabama has a small benefit right here, however that may change in a recreation like this.  

Alabama vs. Ohio State prediction   

In that final assembly, Alabama was simply 2-of-13 on third down. Jones will probably be extra environment friendly than that, and the Crimson Tide will take a double-digit lead within the second quarter after Smith’s second TD. Ohio State will not go away, nonetheless, and a Sermon TD earlier than halftime will set up an exciting second half. Each groups will commerce TDs in a frantic fourth quarter. Which groups will get that essential rating (or cease) in crunch time? That is the final word toss-up.  

Ultimate rating: Alabama 37, Ohio State 34  

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