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NFL Week 16 Betting Guide: Spread, moneyline, over/under picks

With simply two weeks remaining within the 2020 NFL common season, nearly each recreation in Week 16 accommodates a point of playoff implication. Eager bettors might be in search of any edge to assault in hopes of profitable large and paying off these pesky post-holiday payments!

Each week, this column gives an in depth breakdown of our favourite bets, weaving in a preview of unique information from BetQL. This compilation serves as a mere sneak preview of all that BetQL gives, whether or not you like betting in opposition to the unfold, moneylines, or over/unders. Verify us out now to disclose our full betting predictions for each recreation of Week 16, together with projections and greatest wager scores from our NFL Greatest Guess Mannequin.

All information offered is as of Friday morning. You possibly can monitor all NFL line motion on BetQL’s Line Motion Dashboard.

Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker

All information offered is as of Friday morning. You possibly can monitor all NFL line motion on BetQL’s Line Movement Dashboard.

NFL Week 16 Betting Picks: Unfold choose of the week

Cincinnati Bengals (+9) at Houston Texans

To some, selecting the 3-10-1 Bengals in a brief week after they upset the 11-2 Steelers would possibly seem to be the equal of chasing factors in fantasy soccer. However anybody who watched that Monday Evening Soccer recreation is aware of that Pittsburgh didn’t simply choke final week — the Bengals additionally fought for that win. What a breath of contemporary air that should have been for Cincinnati coach Zac Taylor, who has witnessed his workforce endure numerous setbacks throughout their 2020 marketing campaign.

Third-string QB Ryan Finley confirmed outstanding poise in opposition to a powerful Pittsburgh protection, and now he attracts one of the weak secondaries within the NFL in Houston. The Texans rank thirty first in whole yards allowed (402.6 per recreation) and have given up a median of two.3 passing touchdowns per recreation over the previous three weeks. In addition they function the second-worst dashing protection this season, surrendering 150.5 yards per recreation on the bottom.

The Texans are at the moment on a three-game dropping streak, throughout which they’ve been outscored 89-47. Even nonetheless, with Deshaun Watson underneath heart, we at BetQL anticipate the Texans to win this recreation, however we now have no purpose to assume they are going to win it by 10 factors. Cincinnati’s protection confirmed final week that it shouldn’t be counted out primarily based on its file, and Finley can compete when given the possibility and totally prepped for the beginning.

We might really feel rather more assured on this choose if extensive receiver Tyler Boyd clears concussion protocol, however we expect the Bengals cowl the +9 even when they only have veteran A.J. Inexperienced and rookie Tee Higgins out extensive. They need to additionally be capable to open up the sector a bit if veteran again Gio Bernard can choose up the place he left off final week (97 whole yards, two touchdowns).

The BetQL Greatest Guess Mannequin options this as one in every of its high underdog picks in opposition to the unfold this week, itemizing it with a full five-star confidence score. Plain and easy, the Bengals keep in video games and have lined in eight of their 14 video games in opposition to the unfold. In the meantime, Houston ranks close to the underside of the NFL in opposition to the unfold this season (5-9), and has gone simply 2-4 ATS at house. Guess the underwear, after which inform everybody at your Zoom 12 months’s Eve Celebration that you just gained cash wagering on Ryan Finley and the Bengals.

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NFL Week 16 Betting Picks: Moneyline choose of the week

Pittsburgh Steelers (+110) vs. Indianapolis Colts

Full disclosure: Pittsburgh has been abysmal currently, dropping three consecutive video games culminating in a 27-17 Monday Evening Soccer shocker by the aforementioned Bengals. The Steelers have not scored 20 factors in a recreation since Nov. 22 and have inched their solution to the highest of the NFL leaderboard in dropped passes (27 whole, alongside Dallas). However one thing tells us Steelers coach Mike Tomlin could have his workforce prepared at house in opposition to Indy this weekend.

Steelers Nation is aware of this can be a must-win for his or her workforce — not only for morale but in addition to retain the No. 2 seed within the AFC. Tomlin’s squad has dropped every of its previous two street contests and gained 10 of its previous 12 house video games relationship again to 2019. So, sure, this recreation looms giant for the Metal Metropolis. And, sure, Pittsburgh ought to be listed as the favourite regardless of its latest struggles.

The Steelers rank second or higher in a plethora of defensive classes, and permit the second-fewest passing yards per recreation (193.3). That’s one mark that hasn’t modified one bit over the course of the previous three video games, throughout which they’ve (extremely) allowed 193.7 passing yards per recreation. Distinction that with Indy, which has served as an amazing protection in its personal proper however has faltered a bit as of late. The Colts have surrendered a median of 331.7 passing yards over the previous three weeks, which ranks final within the NFL.

The BetQL Greatest Guess Mannequin lists Pittsburgh’s +110 moneyline as a four-star wager. The Mannequin additionally factors out a five-star development: All through his Steelers teaching profession, Tomlin has gone 39-7 in house video games by which the full is between 42.5 and 49 factors. This recreation’s over/underneath is smack-dab in the course of that vary, at 44.5. The Steelers crack 20 factors for the primary time in 5 video games and win by a subject purpose, 23-20.

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NFL Week 16 Betting Picks: Over/underneath choose of the week

Cardinals vs. 49ers: OVER 49

Our sharp bettor report tells us that round 86 p.c of cash is on the UNDER on this recreation, and I can’t think about why. Kyler Murray and the Cardinals lastly began cooking once more, profitable two straight video games and posting 59 whole factors within the course of. They even put up 28 factors in a dropping effort in opposition to the stout protection of the Rams three weeks in the past.

The notion in Vegas and amongst bettors appears to be that the 49ers have an above-average protection and due to this fact will swing the sport UNDER. However San Francisco has been banged up all season, and the Niners D has spent a lot time on the sector they’ve proven apparent fatigue the previous few weeks. Robert Saleh’s squad has surrendered a median of 25.1 factors per recreation in 2020 and a whopping 32.7 factors per recreation over the previous three video games (the latter of which is tied for third most within the NFL). The Cardinals, in the meantime, common over 23 factors allowed on the season and prior to now three weeks.

However this turns into a no brainer whenever you take a look at Murray and the Playing cards’ scoring output and establish what sort of a recreation this can seemingly be. They’ve scored a median of 27.9 factors per recreation in 2020 and 29 factors per recreation over the previous three video games. The 49ers, in the meantime, have maintained their season-long scoring imply (23.8 factors per recreation), averaging a fair 24 factors over the previous few weeks.

With Arizona again to its high-flying offensive methods, and San Francisco placing factors on the board with backup QBs (33 factors in Dallas final week!), this feels just like the under-the-radar over/underneath to focus on this week. I’m personally projecting a 30-24 Arizona win that retains the Cardinals within the NFC wild card race.

Head over to BetQL to see our mannequin’s greatest wager, sharp information and rather more for this recreation and each Week 16 contest! You’ll find all up to date NFL lines, spreads, and odds at BetQL ! Thanks for studying, and have a contented, wholesome, and secure Christmas!

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