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Projecting Josh Allen’s next contract with Bills: How much should Buffalo pay QB after rookie deal?

The Payments have seen regular enchancment from quarterback Josh Allen ever since they chose him No. 7 total within the 2018 NFL draft. He got here into the league as a wild however extremely gifted prospect due to his large arm and nice athleticism for his 6-5, 237-pound body.

There was purpose to consider Allen might emerge like Cam Newton in his prime, given Buffalo’s braintrust of coach Sean McDermott and normal supervisor Brandon Beane’s historical past in Carolina. In his first two seasons, Allen leaned a lot on his operating due to his inconsistency in passing downfield. That made 2020 a crossroads third yr for Allen.

Through the Payments’ 13-3 season, regardless of just a few shaky performances, Allen put all of it collectively as a pass-first QB, with field-stretching go-to huge receiver Stefon Diggs being the ultimate piece. Along with his standout, MVP-like yr, Allen has rewarded the Payments for making vital investments round him on the offensive line, receiving corps and backfield.

Now the Payments ought to really feel much more snug about rewarding Allen with a profitable second contract. This is a glance again on Allen’s rookie deal and what that now means for a way large of a increase he can anticipate to see:

MORE: Revisiting the Chiefs’ 2017 trade up to select Patrick Mahomes

Josh Allen contract particulars

Allen was slotted in for a completely assured four-year deal of $21.183 million. Compared, 2018 No. 1 choose Baker Mayfield bought $32.682 million from the Browns and No. 32 choose Lamar Jackson bought $9.471 million from the Ravens. The Payments even have a fifth-year possibility for 2022.

Allen earns a median annual wage of $5.295 million. For 2020, he is making a complete of $5.867 million when combining base wage, the even break up of his signing bonus and roster bonus. In 2021, he is set to make $6.91 million.

With No. 3 choose Sam Darnold and No. 10 choose Josh Rosen as non-factors and Mayfield turning into extra of a caretaker in Cleveland, Allen figures to be at the very least the second-highest paid QB from the category after Jackson going ahead. Jackson, with league MVP on his resume from 12 months 2, presently deserves that leap over Allen.

Josh Allen’s second contract projection

Assuming there isn’t any main third-year regression from Allen after his sturdy begin, he ought to get locked up long-term in the summertime of 2021, the way in which the Chiefs took care of Patrick Mahomes and the Texans prolonged Deshaun Watson right before the 2020 season.

Mahomes set a brand new bar with a median annual wage of $45 million over 10 years, together with $63 million assured at signing as a part of greater than $141 million in whole ensures. Watson averages $39 million on his four-year deal that got here with extra assured at signing, $73.7 million as a part of greater than $110.7 million in whole ensures in relation to his shorter contract length.

When projecting Jackson’s contract with the Ravens, there’s good purpose to match Watson by way of size of contract, solely with extra assured at signing and the next proportion of whole ensures. By way of common annual wage, search for Jackson to make between $40 and $43 million.

MORE: What if the Bills had drafted Patrick Mahomes in 2017?

Ought to Jackson slot in between Mahomes and Watson, as anticipated, the place does that depart Allen? Actually, ought to Allen construct on his elite early play to both succeed Jackson as one of the best QB within the 2018 class, and even higher, succeed Mahomes as Tremendous Bowl MVP, he might command the second-highest common annual wage on the league’s highest-paid place.

At this level, with Allen turning the nook in his profession, he should not really feel unhealthy if his play in relation to Mahomes, Watson and Jackson will get him “solely” into Russell Wilson’s four-year neighborhood of $35 million per season, $70 million assured at signing and $107 in whole ensures.

Primarily based on the rising market values for younger, profitable first-round QBs as they exceed expectations on their preliminary cut price contracts, Allen was nicely behind however is catching up quick. His subsequent deal will include a excessive Wilson-like flooring, however it could actually’t be dominated out for him getting proper underneath the Mahomes ceiling, relying on whether or not he can end the season even stronger than he began it.

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